Connor McDavid and the Future of the Edmonton Oilers

June 17, 2025

As Connor McDavid approaches the end of his current eight-year, $100 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers, set to expire after the 2025–26 season, the NHL’s financial landscape means his next deal will set new benchmarks.

The NHL’s salary cap is on an upward trajectory, with the upper limit projected to rise from $88 million in 2024–25 to $95.5 million in 2025–26, $104 million in 2026–27, and $113.5 million in 2027–28. This substantial increase provides teams with greater financial flexibility, potentially allowing for more lucrative player contracts.

The biggest contract ever awarded in raw total value remains Alexander Ovechkin’s 13-year, $124 million deal signed in 2008 with the Washington Capitals. That contract was revolutionary and became the gold standard for long-term, big-money deals.

In September 2024, Leon Draisaitl reset the market with an eight-year, $112 million deal, giving him a league-high $14 million AAV. That deal is likely to be eclipsed by McDavid’s next contract, but for now, it represents the top of the modern financial structure.

The Evolution of High-Value NHL Contracts

When it comes to total contract value, only a handful of NHL deals have crossed the $100 million mark. Examples include Shea Weber’s 14-year, $110 million offer sheet from the Flyers in 2012, which remains one of the most aggressive ever made, forcing Nashville to match a front-loaded, bonus-heavy structure that was nearly impossible to buy out. Ilya Kovalchuk’s original 17-year, $102 million deal with New Jersey was voided for cap circumvention before being restructured to 15 years and $100 million, exposing loopholes later closed in the CBA.

McDavid’s eight-year, $100 million contract signed in 2017 came with a then-record $12.5 million AAV, setting a modern benchmark for superstar extensions. This season, Mikko Rantanen’s eight-year, $96 million deal with Colorado now joins that elite tier, carrying a $12 million AAV and locking in one of the game’s premier offensive threats, signaling how a rising cap environment is reshaping long-term valuations.

Given McDavid’s status as the league’s premier player, it’s anticipated that his next contract will reflect that. However, accommodating a significant increase in McDavid’s salary will require careful cap management. Though the projected increases may alleviate some pressure, strategic planning will be essential to maintain a competitive roster.

McDavid’s preference to remain in Edmonton is likely, but the allure of free agency cannot be discounted. Big-market teams with ample cap space could present compelling offers, but the trend in the NHL has seen these types of players often re-signing with their original teams before reaching free agency.

The top NHL contracts in this new era are increasingly structured with salary cap percentage in mind, rather than just flat dollar figures. This is especially true post-lockout, as GMs and agents have become more sophisticated about locking in value that stays relevant as the cap climbs.

The CBA allows a player to make up to 20% of the team’s salary cap in any given year. This means that as the cap rises, the theoretical maximum salary rises with it. For example, under a projected $104 million cap in 2026–27, a player could earn up to $20.8 million per season. That’s the hard ceiling.

Salary Cap Implications

McDavid’s current AAV of $12.5 million, signed under an $81.5 million cap, represented just under 15.3% of the cap at the time. When Nathan MacKinnon signed for $12.6 million AAV in 2022, it came in at roughly 15.4% of the $82.5 million cap. Draisaitl’s new $14 million figure is roughly 15.9% of the $88 million cap for 2024–25. There’s a clear pattern: elite players are being priced right around the 15 to 16 percent mark of the cap.

If the cap hits $104 million as projected, and if McDavid remains in the 15–16% range, we’re likely looking at a contract with an AAV between $15.6 and $16.64 million.

If he decides to push the envelope and hit the 18–20% range, which no player has done in the salary cap era, we’re potentially talking about $18.7 million to $20.8 million AAV. Whether he does that depends on his priorities, but Edmonton is uniquely positioned to approach this negotiation with both leverage and goodwill.

Because McDavid and Draisaitl are close, and because they’ve built this era together in Edmonton, McDavid is likely to consider the big picture. He knows that squeezing the team for the full 20% of the cap would hinder Edmonton’s ability to compete for a Cup. He’s also smart enough to understand that his legacy, and the championships that define his career, are more important than marginal salary differences.

It would be hard for another franchise to offer McDavid something as enticing as a legacy already in progress. Unless McDavid is looking to change scenery (which he’s never indicated), this negotiation becomes less about the money and more about the margin above Draisaitl. The logic becomes simple and human: you’re the best in the world, and your best friend just signed for $14 million. How much more do you reasonably want?

Bouchard’s Rising Value and Edmonton’s Dilemma

Evan Bouchard is arguably the next critical piece in Edmonton’s contract puzzle. His offensive production, especially in the playoffs, is historical. He’s entering a negotiation window where his comps are no longer young defensemen with potential, but elite, record-setting blueliners who define their eras.

Bouchard’s playoff performances are jaw-dropping, and he’s put up numbers that rival or surpass peak-era offensive defensemen by quarterbacking the league’s most lethal power play with McDavid and Draisaitl. He’s producing at a clip not seen since names like Paul Coffey or Brian Leetch in their primes.

Over 75 playoff games, he has 81 points, including 20 goals and 61 assists. In 2023, Bouchard put up 17 points in 12 games. The following year, he exploded with 32 points in 25 games after a point-per-game regular season. He finished the 2025 Cup run, marking the second consecutive finals loss, with 23 points in 21 games.

He’s legitimately on a statistical trajectory few have matched. His consistent ability to produce on the biggest stage has made him one of the most impactful defensemen of his generation and underscores his growth as a top-tier offensive weapon. Factor in his age, development curve, and low-maintenance game style, and you have a player who projects as one of the best offensive defensemen of his generation.

Edmonton signed him to a short-term deal to maintain cap flexibility, likely hoping to delay a major payday until they had more clarity around future cap increases and long-term roster structure. But after Bouchard’s breakout seasons, especially his playoff dominance, the bill is due, and the market comps are not doing Edmonton any favors.

Cale Makar signed his six-year, $9 million AAV extension in 2021 at age 22, shortly after winning the Calder Trophy. That deal is now considered one of the biggest steals in the league, especially given Makar’s trajectory as a Norris Trophy winner and generational defenseman. Adam Fox signed for $9.5 million AAV the same year, also at 23, coming off a Norris season of his own.

In Boston, Charlie McAvoy locked in at $9.5 million AAV over eight years, a deal that recognized both his two-way excellence and his growing offensive role. More recently, Rasmus Dahlin signed for $11 million AAV in 2023, clearly marking a jump in valuation for elite, offensive-minded defensemen entering unrestricted free agency.

These deals form the valuable core of Bouchard’s negotiating leverage. Bouchard’s raw production, especially in the postseason, rivals or exceeds anything those players did before their extensions. If the Oilers want to secure Bouchard’s prime, they’ll have to pay for it, and he could justifiably ask for $10.5 to $11 million based on the inflation-adjusted defense market and his playoff dominance.

Darnell Nurse’s $9.25 million AAV, signed in 2021, functions like the absolute floor for Bouchard’s next deal. Put plainly, if Nurse is worth $9.25 million, then Bouchard is worth at least $10.5 to $11.5 million, and maybe more. The way forward is an eight-year deal that locks Bouchard up through his prime, with the understanding that the cap is climbing.

Bouchard at anything under $10 million AAV long-term would be a huge win but is likely a fantasy at this point. He could reasonably become the highest-paid defenseman in the league upon his next extension, and unlike with Nurse, few would argue against it. He is currently 25, turning 26 in October, and will reach UFA status in the 2027 offseason.

The Oilers’ Top Four: Navigating the Salary Cap

If we project McDavid’s next contract at around $16 million AAV, add Draisaitl’s already-signed $14 million AAV, Bouchard’s likely extension at around $10.5 million, and Nurse’s existing $9.25 million deal, the Oilers’ top four earners would combine for an annual cap hit of roughly $49.75 million. With the NHL’s salary cap expected to reach $104 million by 2026–27, that would amount to about 47.8% of the total cap tied up in just four players.

As the cap continues to rise, there will be a bit more breathing room, but only if the rest of the roster is managed with ruthless precision. That means relying on entry-level contracts to fill out the bottom half of the roster while avoiding long-term deals for middle-tier players. If they build around the core with discipline, they’ll have enough star power locked up to contend year after year.